Is the vaccine working ?

 

More than 15 million people in the UK received the first dose of the coronavirus vaccine, but how do we know if it is effective?

There are some early signs that the effects of the vaccine may reduce the number of deaths in people over 80.

But the data on the cases and hospitalized patients is not yet clear.

It is difficult to distinguish the effect of the vaccine from the lock-in effect.

Therefore, the government will review other data before deciding to relax restrictions.


What does the data show?


The BBC News analysis uses only data from England, indicating that the vaccine is beginning to push down this number.

Coronavirus deaths in the vaccinated group declined faster than the unvaccinated group.

Between January 28 and February 11, on average, the mortality rate for people in their 80s fell by 53%, while the mortality rate for people under 80 fell by 44%.

Professor Chris Whitty, the UK’s chief medical adviser, said this week: “The earliest signs indicate that it will have a certain effect.

"But I think it's too early to tell the numbers.

"We hope to see some evidence enough to put it into the public domain in the coming weeks."

But in other statistics, we do not see a strong vaccine effect.


Between January 30 and February 13, the number of hospitalizations for elderly people over 85 years old fell by 45%, while the number of hospitalizations for people under 85 years old fell by 42%.


Compared with other age groups, the number of coronavirus cases among the elderly is also decreasing faster.

Between January 28 and February 11, cases in the 1980s and above fell by 52%, while cases in the 1980s and below fell by 47%.


But the number of cases may not be a reliable indicator of whether the vaccine is effective.

The vaccine prevents serious infections.

However, the large number of routine coronavirus tests performed in places such as nursing homes can also be infected with mild and asymptomatic infections.

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